World Cup Group F

Probably never have the defending champions arrived at a World Cup so much under the radar as 2006 winners Italy but they could hardly have handpicked their Group F opponents any more to their liking and it would be dangerous, as always, to write them off.

Italy

The four times winners ultimately qualified in style, unbeaten and six points clear of a talented Ireland side, and I’m not quite sure why seemingly nobody fancies Marcello Lippi’s men to go all the way once again.

Little has changed since Italy lifted the famous trophy in Berlin four years ago and, while they never do things all that impressively, their route to the quarterfinals, at the very least, looks all but guaranteed.

Italy are notoriously slow starters at major finals but with Paraguay in their opening match followed by New Zealand six days later they can probably afford a couple of sluggish displays and still claim maximum points and, once the defending champions reach the knockout stages, they will be a team that nobody wants to face.

With the core of the side from Germany still intact the new blood features predominantly in attack and I’m particularly excited by Udinese front man Antonio Di Natale. He looks set to be partnered by Fiorentina striker Alberto Gilardino and that duo, along with the likes of Vincenzo Iaquinta, look more of a threat than other recent Italian forward lines.

Italy’s strength lies in their solidity at the back and with Gianluigi Buffon, still the best goalkeeper around, infrequently tested thanks to the quality of the likes of Fabio Cannavaro in front of him they are rarely, if ever, overwhelmed.

AC Milan playmaker Andrea Pirlo is strutting better than he has ever strutted before in the middle and it is a shame that he doesn’t get the chance to link up with Francesco Totti once again. The Roma man is in the form of his life and may yet be tempted out international retirement as Lippi looks to mastermind a successful defence of the trophy.

Italy are 1/2 with Ladbrokes to top Group F and that looks fair enough to me.

Paraguay

Managed by Argentine Gerardo Martino, Paraguay finished third in South American qualifying to reach their fourth consecutive World Cup finals and are rated clear favourites, 1/2 with Ladbrokes, to join Italy in the second round.

13 of Paraguay’s 18 matches en route to South Africa featured two goals or less and this experienced side look well equipped to deal with the demands of a major finals once more. Paraguay rarely give much away but five defeats suggest they are vulnerable against the better sides and surely their limitations will be exposed.

Manchester City forward Roque Santa Cruz is certain to attract the attention of opposing defences but the likes of Salvador Cabanas and Borussia Dortmund’s Nelson Haedo Valdez also carry a threat and a good opening performance against Italy could well set the tone.

It looks a straight fight between Paraguay and Slovakia for the second spot available behind the Group F favourites and it could be the former’s more battled-hardened key men that prove the difference.

Captain Justo Villar doesn’t concede many in goal and he should be well protected by a first choice back four that have all notched in excess of 50 caps.

Slovakia

Vladimir Weiss’s side topped a quality qualifying group in Europe that included fellow finalists Slovenia as well as Czech Republic and Poland and they are another of the less fashionable nations that should not be underestimated.

Competing in their first major finals of any note, Slovakia have absolutely nothing to lose and there was no fluke about their progression to South Africa. Slovakia have plenty of talented individuals and, much like Serbia, also know how to win matches when things aren’t going their way.

Slovakia’s clash with Paraguay, New Zealand are expected to be the Group F whipping boys, will clearly be crucial but their opening match against the Kiwis is ideal. There are bound to be nerves but the majority of their starting line up feature regularly in the top leagues across Europe and in captain Marek Hamsik they possess a genuine world class talent.

The Napoli midfielder has been regularly watched by a number of high profile Premier League and Bundesliga sides and he operates well in tandem with the more defensively minded veteran Miroslav Karhan.

Striker Robert Vittek, the Lille forward, has an eye for goal and Slovakia also possess players of the calibre of Martin Skrtel, the Liverpool defender, at the back to ensure Paraguay, and Italy for that matter, will have plenty to think about.

I’ve been impressed whenever I’ve seen Slovakia over the past 18 months and the price discrepancy between Weiss’s side advancing and the South Americans seems wrong to me. That means the 7/4 with VC Bet is well worth baking to small stakes.

New Zealand

Rank outsiders in the outright, New Zealand can be backed at 80/1 with 888 sport to win Group F but even that looks on the skinny side and avoiding defeat in every game would be deemed a success for Ricki Herbert’s team.

New Zealand qualified for South Africa thanks to a Rory Fallon winner against Bahrain but a better indication of their quality came in the summer’s Confederations Cup when they failed to score a single goal in three matches, New Zealand were beaten 5-0 by Spain, and they look massively up against it.

Comprised mainly of home based players, New Zealand manage to lose a qualifier at home to no less than Fiji and I’ll be amazed if they can cope with what will face them in South Africa. They have no chance and returning home after the group stage looks all but guaranteed.

Still, this is what the World Cup is all about and it’s great to see them competing for the first time since 1982.