by Tom Allen
It took a while but Spain eventually found a way through against Portugal on
Tuesday to book their place in the last eight and should now be way too good for
Paraguay.
David Villa's fourth goal of the finals was enough to see Spain edge past
their dogged neighbours and, while they seemingly lacked ideas before their star
man made the breakthrough, things should be plenty easier for them against the
South Americans.
Villa's second half strike allowed Spain to keep Portugal at arm's length,
they retained possession fantastically after the Barcelona man found the net,
and an early strike on Saturday could well see them coast into the semi-finals.
Spain are at their brilliant best when their opponents are chasing the game
and I saw very little in Paraguay's penalty kick win over Japan to suggest that
the Euro 2008 winners will have any trouble getting the job done with the
minimum of fuss.
Spain were immediately put under pressure in South Africa when defeated 1-0
by Switzerland in their opener but they eased past Honduras 2-0, it could have
been six or seven, and then did enough to beat Chile to secure their place in
the knockout stages.
Those early exertions could well work in Spain's favour as things progress,
they are certainly battle-hardened, and the pre-tournament favourites can set up
a mouth-watering semi-final against Argentina or Germany with success inside 90
minutes.
Paraguay's win over Japan was cruel on the Asian side, they had probably
shaded the tie over 120 minutes, and it was disappointing to see how negatively
the South Americans played they played.
Perhaps it was not surprising however, with so much riding on the outcome,
and it is anticipated that Paraguay will look to contain and frustrate Spain,
just as they did in the last 16.
While those tactics can be effective, restricting a side as fluent and
talented as Vicente Del Bosque's men for 90 minutes is easier said than done
and, bearing in mind Portugal, a team that had kept clean sheets in 15 of their
previous 18 matches were eventually undone, surely Paraguay will succumb at some
point.
Making a long term profit is all about identifying value, regardless of
price, and I rate Spain much closer to around the 1/3 mark in the Match Odds
market.
That makes the 1/2 available with
Victor Chandler look attractive and one goal should be enough for them to
prevail.
3pts Back Spain (vs. Paraguay) @ 1/2 (Victor
Chandler)
