by Ryan D Jaeger
Australia is an overwhelming favorite at bookmakers (1/6 at
Bet365), and with very good reason. They won the Tri-Nations, they have
arguably the word's best halfback pairing an Genia and Cooper, and they showed
continuation of their form against the Italians.
The Australian pack is more robust than it has been for many years, having
found answers to the set piece problems that have dogged them so much.
So are we just being silly by picking the upset? We don't think so. Here's
why you should back Ireland as the outsider at 9/2 (Bet365).
The Weather
The forecast is for rain, and lots of it. This is a great leveller that will
suit the Irish, who will play a very tight and forward oriented game plan wit
their halves kicking for touch. The Australian back three have been brilliant
running it back but in the rain they won't find that easy.
Quade Cooper
The enigmatic Quade Cooper is a gifted footballer who can rip the heart out
of any defense but if he does not get a crisp service he struggles when forced
back into the pocket and made to play defensively. Digby Ioane normally defends
the 10 channel for Australia but he is injured, which will force a rethink for the
Wallabies. The Irish will rely on a good kicking game to drive the Australians
back and with the poor weather forecast, Cooper will be forced to stay deeper
and kick more which does not suit his style.
Irish Game Plan
It will be nasty and at times ugly but the Irish showed against England in
the final Six Nations game last year that if their pack steps up, they can
squeeze the life out of the opposition. If they replicate that performance in
the wet they can win.
Irish Contrarianism
Tell the Irish they can't and they will! We say back the Irish because
everything they have done over the last year will have been with one eye on this
game.
Time For an Upset
It's about time and there's not better time than in Auckland on Saturday!
Best bets:
Ireland outright: 9/2 (Bet365)
Ireland winning margin: 1-5 at 8/1 (Bet365)
